citrus fortress

the semi-professional ramblings of mr. tony zito, concerning matters of product design, communities, &C.

The 4-Inch Display

There is more than one way to make a living as a speculator, it seems.

parislemon:

John Gruber, elaborating on the previously linked 9to5Mac report:

First, at 1136 × 640, you get a diagonal of 1,303.877 pixels after applying the Pythagorean theorem. There are no such thing as fractional pixels, but what I’m talking about here are pixels as a unit of length, equal to 1/326 inch. Divide 1,303.877 by 326 and you get 3.9996 inches. Boom, a “4-inch” display.

If Apple does indeed change the screen — which is looking increasingly likely — this thing is going to make the last few iPhone launches look very meek. There will be none in the “but it looks the same as the last one” camp. Everyone will want to upgrade.

And if they add LTE as well…

Secession never looked so good.
theatlantic:

The Difference Between the U.S. and Europe in 1 Graph

The euro zone has Greece. The United States has Mississippi. Or Missouri.The difference between the U.S. and Europe is that when the Greek economy “pulls a Mississippi” (or perhaps I should say, when Mississippi “pulls a Greece”), the EU and the U.S. have 180-degree opposite reactions. Over here, we calmly write checks to Mississippi in the form of Medicaid and unemployment insurance, no questions asked. Europe has no comparable “Peripheraid” for its weak peripheral states. Instead, it has chaos.Michael Cembalest, a JP Morgan analyst, passes along another clever graph which shows fiscal transfers (don’t worry, that’s just another word for money) between the rich California-Connecticut-Illinois-New Jersey-New York quintuple and poorer states like Tennessee. If similar, seamless transfers existed in the EU, the rich north would have to send to Portugal and Greece at least an additional 30 cents for every dollar they paid in taxes, year after year after year.
When you hear commentators say, “the euro zone must begin to transition toward a fiscal union,” what they are saying, in human-speak, is that the Europe needs to be more like the United States, with balanced budget laws for its individual members and seamless fiscal transfers from the rich countries to the poor, to protect the indigent, old, and sick, no matter where they reside.The Germans call this sort of thing “a permanent bailout.” We just call it “Missouri.”

Secession never looked so good.

theatlantic:

The Difference Between the U.S. and Europe in 1 Graph

The euro zone has Greece. The United States has Mississippi. Or Missouri.

The difference between the U.S. and Europe is that when the Greek economy “pulls a Mississippi” (or perhaps I should say, when Mississippi “pulls a Greece”), the EU and the U.S. have 180-degree opposite reactions. Over here, we calmly write checks to Mississippi in the form of Medicaid and unemployment insurance, no questions asked. Europe has no comparable “Peripheraid” for its weak peripheral states. Instead, it has chaos.

Michael Cembalest, a JP Morgan analyst, passes along another clever graph which shows fiscal transfers (don’t worry, that’s just another word for money) between the rich California-Connecticut-Illinois-New Jersey-New York quintuple and poorer states like Tennessee. If similar, seamless transfers existed in the EU, the rich north would have to send to Portugal and Greece at least an additional 30 cents for every dollar they paid in taxes, year after year after year.

When you hear commentators say, “the euro zone must begin to transition toward a fiscal union,” what they are saying, in human-speak, is that the Europe needs to be more like the United States, with balanced budget laws for its individual members and seamless fiscal transfers from the rich countries to the poor, to protect the indigent, old, and sick, no matter where they reside.

The Germans call this sort of thing “a permanent bailout.” We just call it “Missouri.”

I want this in my house.

theatlantic:

The Grocery Store of the Future?

People do any number of things while waiting on the platform for the next subway or commuter train. Some pre-walk to position themselves at the best station exit for their destination. Some just mindlessly pace. The ones who used to look down the track every few moments for the next train now look at the digital arrival times every few moments instead. Some take pictures of rats.
And, as of earlier this month, some Philadelphians have been able to shop for groceries. The online grocer Peapod introduced virtual storefronts at select SEPTA stations throughout the city. While awaiting a train, users can download the Peapod app, peruse the items in front of them, and scan the barcode of anything they’d like to purchase. The groceries are delivered to their homes later that day.
Philly marks the idea’s American debut, but a number of international cities already have similar services. Woolworths has placed virtual storefronts at the Town Hall Station in Sydney, Australia, and displays from British retailer Tesco were installed last year in South Korea. If three is a trend, you just got trended.
Read more. [Image: Peapod]

I want this in my house.

theatlantic:

The Grocery Store of the Future?

People do any number of things while waiting on the platform for the next subway or commuter train. Some pre-walk to position themselves at the best station exit for their destination. Some just mindlessly pace. The ones who used to look down the track every few moments for the next train now look at the digital arrival times every few moments instead. Some take pictures of rats.

And, as of earlier this month, some Philadelphians have been able to shop for groceries. The online grocer Peapod introduced virtual storefronts at select SEPTA stations throughout the city. While awaiting a train, users can download the Peapod app, peruse the items in front of them, and scan the barcode of anything they’d like to purchase. The groceries are delivered to their homes later that day.

Philly marks the idea’s American debut, but a number of international cities already have similar services. Woolworths has placed virtual storefronts at the Town Hall Station in Sydney, Australia, and displays from British retailer Tesco were installed last year in South Korea. If three is a trend, you just got trended.

Read more. [Image: Peapod]

Dark Patterns

This inspired presentation by Harry Brignull should be required viewing for anyone who makes products that they want people to love. But I’d argue that more than “naming & shaming,” a business case needs to be made for treating customers with respect and creating user interfaces that try to help users do what they want. I think the success of companies like Zappos & Netflix is a testament to the fact that such a case can be made, and that while a/b testing can be very valuable, short-term gains achieved by tricking (and very likely frustrating and angering) your customers are dwarfed by the long-term value created by treating them humanely.

Also, check out his Dark Patterns site.

structure vs. culture — applying game design to management

Persistent conflicts within your organization might not be chalked up to personality, or culture, as you may think. It could be that discord is the natural outcome of the way the “game” is structured.

For nearly eight years I worked at a small cable network, and the entire time, to varying degrees, the were some tension between the group that ran programming (i.e. which shows to acquire/produce, and how to schedule them), and the group that was charged with producing the promotional spots for that programming. (I was working on the digital side, so had a more or less neutral vantage point.) For any big programming event, everyone would wait with bated breath for the ratings to come in. If they were good, everyone was happy, and there were mutual congratulations all around. If not, things tended to be less sunny. The promo folks would grouse about the quality of the shows, and of the difficulty in trying to make a silk purse from a sow’s ear, while the programming folks pointed the blame at the promotional spots. More precisely — everyone acknowledged that the promos were creatively excellent, but what was questioned was the efficacy of the messaging in those spots. The criticism was generally that the producers spots were more interested in winning awards (and win awards they did) than putting “butts in seats.”

This conflict led to back-channel sniping, heated meetings, and a general low-level hum of tension between the two groups that lasted during my entire eight-year tenure, despite some changes in the key personnel involved. Despite this persistence over time and changings-of-the-guard, it was generally thought to be a personality issue, or was perhaps more broadly attributed to the respective “cultures” of the departments. This way of thinking imagines some germ of conflict back in the beginning, which is then reproduced and magnified in those back-channel conversations, passing from person to person, like a disease.

It recently occurred to me that there might be a more fundamental, structural explanation for this conflict. That it was, in fact, inevitable given the way the reward structure and evaluation criteria were laid out. In short, the rules of the game guaranteed this conflict, much as the rules of Battleship ensure that one side will lose all its ships, or the rules of Monopoly that all the wealth will inevitably end up in the hands of one player.

Here’s why: both groups were evaluated by the same measure — the ratings. But there was no way to reliably isolate the impact of either group’s contribution to this measure. It’s a messy, abstracted, complex variable. On the other hand, the promo group *did* have another way to measure success, one which was clear and unambiguously attributable to their own efforts — those industry awards they were often faulted for chasing. Presented with two “success” paths — one in which success was clearly and solely their own, and one in which success (and failure) couldn’t really be easily attributed to them, they tended towards the latter. There’s nothing wrong with that — it’s the rational path for actors trying to maximize their own sense (and others’ perception) of accomplishment, and advance their careers. But for a business in which the ratings ultimately matter most, a structure which creates this sort of dissonance is flawed. Goals need to be aligned, and a structure put in place in which each contributor is reliably and objectively rewarded for their individual contribution to those goals.

In this case, I reckon the best solution would have been to make Promotion accountable to Programming, creating a sort of client/vendor relationship between the two, and making ratings solely the responsibility (for better or worse) of Programming. In this scenario, Promotion is structurally required to please Programming, and if their efforts aren’t meeting the greater needs, changes can be made. The larger point is here is that it’s important to look at the structure of rewards within an organization and the methods by which success is measured and attributed, and that it may be hermeneutically useful to view the system as a game, with inherent rules and win conditions which each individual actor is “playing” by and striving towards. The trick is to design (or redesign) the game so that everybody can win, the conditions for winning are clear and measurable, and that everybody’s win condition contributes to the overall success of the enterprise.

Twitter, community, and the problem of the reverse panopticon

About a year ago I made a series of tweets:

“we are creatures that model behavior. in a fixed group, such behavior is reinforced, and norms emerge. in an environment like twitter,” 9:55 AM Apr 2nd from Echofon

“…where the people i am following (and hence possibly modeling) are a) diverse (all from diff groups) and b) not the same as the people” 9:56 AM Apr 2nd from Echofon

“…following me, how can norms of behavior emerge? the problem of the reverse panopticon. need more characters to really get into this.” 9:57 AM Apr 2nd from Echofon

Finally, I’ve gotten around to explaining what it is I was thinking about:

Community consists of mutually-reinforced norms and modes of behavior. Within certain groups (e.g. family, peer groups, professional associations) these norms emerge iteratively and collaboratively (which is not to discount the variable power relations inherent in any such system) as behaviors are modeled and then reproduced until a certain equilibrium is reached — what some might call “community values,” but I mean it in a broader way that it’s commonly used in the public discourse.

Taken to an extreme in the online space, this can lead to the incestuous “echo chamber” effect found on so many political forums (on both the left and right), and to specialized argot and in-jokes impenetrable to an outsider (as seen, for example, on the discussion forums on woot.com — WTF are those people talking about?) But more often than not, this is where true communities form (as they model real-life communities where groups have a shared meeting place, and everyone is equally visible to everyone else.) Metafilter is a great example of this sort of community; it has a clear ethos and recognizable “voice,” despite being (largely) democratically-governed and the content entirely user-created.

In a loosely symmetrical system of relationships such as that enabled by Facebook, in which all connections (“friendships”) are mutually confirmed, but each individual belongs to a different (if often largely overlapping) peer group, a nice middle ground is established — since everyone you are “following” is also following you (unless explicitly hidden), there tends to be some semblance of normative equilibrium, without the homogenizing and rarefying effect exhibited in completely closed systems.

Different people will have radically different experiences of Facebook, depending on whom they’ve decided to surround themselves with (e.g. professional contacts? Friends? Family?), but these differences tend to be incremental based on the number of “hops” away from each node. Put simply, a friend of mine on FB is going to have a different experience of it than I will, but it will likely be less different than a friend of a friend, and so on.

But in a system like Twitter’s, in which relationships are asymmetrical (and therefore only incidentally reciprocal), the notion of a shared experience and mutually-reinforced mores which form the backbone of “community” goes out the window. While there may be 1000s of people viewing a particular tweet, the context of that tweet is completely different for each of the people viewing. What appears to be community, then, is in fact merely a self-constructed simulacrum of a community, in which the people you appear to surround yourself with are themselves surrounded by a completely different group of people, thereby allowing no actual communal norms to develop, except on the most macro-, system-wide level.

But what about the panopticon? In brief, the panopticon is a prison architecture proposed by Jeremy Bentham in the 18th century in which a series of cells extend radially around a central observation node. The prisoners can’t see each other, and can’t see their observer (or precisely when/if they are being observed,) but the observer at the center can see all.

Ignoring the social control purpose this architecture was originally intended for, and most theorists have concentrated on, I’m viewing it more simply as a structure of communication and consumption — of who is viewing, who is being viewed, and what is visible to each. Twitter can be viewed as an infinitely overlapping structure of reverse panopticons, with each participant at the center of his/her own universe, with no visibility outward back to the people who are watching them. There is no “conversation” per se (without a tedious, forensic reconstruction process), as each participant is experiencing and responding to a very different messaging landscape. In such a chaotic landscape, shared norms (a key component of a “community”) cannot emerge. For example, if I follow a bunch of dirty-mouthed comedians (as I do), I might easily get the sense that the ethos of Twitter is wild, profane, and uncompromisingly edgy. But then when I comment in kind, I may well shock the sensibilities of (say) the internet development professionals that follow me. Now multiply this dissonance by the number of individual nodes in the network, and you have a custerfluck of epic proportions, with millions of people shouting together, alone.

Now you might say — “that’s not my experience of Twitter! I feel like a part of a strong community, with a generally shared ethos and many, many mutual interactions.” That’s wonderful, but it also sort of perversely makes my point — due to the asymmetrical architecture inherent in Twitter, every participant’s experience of the product is going to be radically different, dependent on how they’ve structured and maintained their personal network. Surely it’s possible to create sub-networks that consist entirely of symmetrical relationships, with all the members of the group following and being followed by all the other members, but this arrangement is counter to the inherent architecture of the system (unlike a simple community forum, where it is the de facto structure,) and one would need to go to great lengths to accomplish it. Given that, one can no more speak of the “Twitter experience” than they could of the “telephone experience,” or the “pencil experience.”

All of this is not to say that Twitter is not an incredibly interesting and potentially useful tool (like the telephone or the pencil.) Just that it is architected in such a way as to make true community very difficult to achieve, and to promote the existence of Twitter micro-celebrities with thousands of followers that they don’t themselves follow. These celebrity nodes are where shared sensibilities might converge, but the followers aren’t themselves sharing a context — they are all observing and perhaps responding to the center (where an @aplusk or a @hodgman or a @scobleizer might sit,) but are invisible to one another. Is this a problem? If it is, is there anything to be done about it? I have some ideas, but this has gone on long enough for now. Curious to hear your thoughts, and thanks my indulging my rather rambly, admittedly somewhat pretentious, and not-fully-formed post…

The problem with SEO

If it’s optimized for a search engine, it’s *not* being optimized for me. I want my content to be HIO - human intelligence optimized.

Personae - a proposal for the recognition of our multiplicity in social media

“The two of us wrote Anti-Oedipus together. Since each of us was several, there was already quite a crowd. … We are no longer ourselves. Each will know his own. We have been aided, inspired, multiplied.”

- Gilles Deleuze & Félix Guattari, A Thousand Plateaus

Twitter has announced a new “lists” feature, which will grant the ability to users to play curator and create lists of twitter users under an arbitrary (yet presumably relevant) heading. For instance, I might create a “Social TV” list, and feature people like @kenbot, @mikeberkley, and @tomturnbull, and a “Comedy” List with folks like @danharmon, @azizansari, and @scottsimpson. (There, my #followfriday duties are covered for the week.) If you like my taste, you can then follow one of my lists, which I can manage over time, granting the benefits of my (active) oversight to all my (passive) list subscribers. (In that way it’s not unlike a managed mutual fund, but without the fees.)

It’s a great move, allowing for a new class of content-creators that never have to issue a single tweet; they can simply contribute by curating. (Any system which is dependent on users generating the content is well-served by creating multiple points of entry for users to be able engage at the level they feel comfortable with — engagement is a slippery slope.) It also provides a simple yet powerful tool for users to increase the signal to noise ratio of their Twitter experience, which is critical, as anyone following more than ~200 people will tell you.

So yes, “lists” are all well and good, but they only address one half of the issue. We are all many. Whether you call them “masks” or “hats” we all have several we shuffle through each day. Not only are we interested in consuming different categories of content, but we are interested in creating content in different categories as well, thereby presenting specific facets of ourselves to the sundry social spaces we each occupy.  To that end, Twitter should implement some notion of “personae”, in recognition of this idea that each of us are (perhaps subtly) different things within different social contexts, and might like to preserve the separation of those spheres in our social media.

At the most basic level, you might want to simply differentiate between “public” and “private,” leaving the public personae open to the world and using it for more professional updates, while protecting the private update stream from unapproved followers and using for much less formal gabbing about your life. Here’s a slightly more complex scenario: You are a magazine editor, a big fan of the NY Knicks, a single father, and a conspiracy buff. For each of those spheres of interest, there is a pool of people who share your interest, and who may be interested in hearing what you have to say on those topics. In fact, people you know from real life from each of those spheres have found you and are now following you on Twitter. But what do you say? For each audience different content is appropriate; trying to be all things to all of your social contexts will lead to a watered-down compromise at best, and complete paralysis at worst.

With a “personae” system, you could create multiple personae and choose which to post under on a per-tweet basis. (Of course, you could always just choose the default of “all.”) Your followers (and list-makers who choose to include you) would actually be adding personae, rather than people, so your Knicks posts could be on a Knicks Fans list, while your posts about Area 51 appear in the conspiracy list. At the same time, your best friend, who is subscribed to all your personae (what a mensch!) sees it all.

Of course you can approximate this functionality now by creating different accounts for each persona, but that seems like a clumsy way to address an issue that affects the vast majority of users.

For any given posting, we have a certain audience in mind, yet inevitably the imagined audience is just a subset of the actual audience. Has this happened to you: Someone responds to something you’ve posted on Twitter or Facebook and you’re stunned: “Whoa, that was not intended for you at all!” Our friends/followers are a diverse group, occupying highly variable levels not only of “closeness” but also of social context, and it’s often easy to forget just how diverse. Or, conversely, have you ever not posted something because it would seem unprofessional, or not funny enough, or would in whatever way undermine the expectations & perceptions of what you consider your ‘primary’ audience? A “personae” system would address both of these issues, freeing up users to express each of their personae as fully and strongly as they see fit, simultaneously honing multiple personal “brands” as it were,  without having to worry about the dilution of the value of their stream for their followers who are only interested in one or another aspect, and summarily improve the quality of content for everyone.

Infinite Summer

I first read Infinite Jest in the Summer of 2001. Or maybe it was 2002. It’s odd to me that I don’t immediately know the answer to that, since there was a terrible event between those two summers, one which I would think would color my reading. I do remember it was all mixed up in swooniness and crushing and a general lunacy. And I loved it so, so much. It was explosively glossophilic, unhinged and brilliant and gut-wrenchingly sad. So smart, but not cold like a William Vollmann smartness; DFW’s was more of a full-bodied brilliance — this was an unabashedly brainy book, sure, but it engaged you corporeally, grabbed your throat and poked your kidney and punched your dick and squeezed your heart. (It’s more pleasurable than it sounds.) It was a book that made you want to throw it, and throw it you did at least once, probably several times. I’ve been meaning to read it again for ages, and now I’ve an excuse. Apparently some jokers have declared this “Infinite Summer,” and have put out a call for people to read (or reread) Infinite Jest from June 21 to September 22. That’s just 75 pages a week. (Well, 81 if you start today.) Do it; it’ll give us one more thing to talk about.

Infinite Summer

How Twitter could start making money NOW without f*cking up a very, very good thing.

A few days ago, it was rumored that Twitter would begin charging brands for commercial use. This was soon denied, and rightly so — it makes no sense, as it’s just impossible to adequately delineate. There’s been talk of charging for “brand verification” as well, to ensure, say, that the person who claims to be the Dalai Lama really is the Dalai Lama, for instance. That makes some sense, but what’s the value to the brand? Do they really want a gold star next to their name announcing themselves as having paid to be at the table? I could see such a marker becoming a negative thing, announcing a) that you’re dumb enough to pay for what everyone else is doing for free, and b) tarnishing your realness/credibility. I don’t think that’s the way to go. Twitter must not change the basic interaction model they’ve established. No micropayments, no barriers to accumulating large followings, no premium tweets, no subscriptions. And no ads, not yet. (Though I don’t think that one would be a deal-breaker for consumers, ultimately.) It’s a delicate ecosystem, and the number one priority should be its continued growth. That said, there are a few moves Twitter could make that respect this ecosystem, put no barriers in its growth path, and allow it to start generating revenue now:

1. Be Twitter experts: Provide professional/marketing services (including advanced stats and analytics)

Companies are falling over themselves to get onto Twitter, and have NO IDEA where to start. I’m sure Kevin Thau is deluged with requests from Fortune 500 companies who just want to chat, try to figure out how they could “work together.” It’s time to start converting this heat into dollars. Twitter should start an ancillary professional services agency, to which all these requests could get diverted. Want to use Twitter for marketing? Hire Twitter to help you. Sure there are hundreds of “social media experts” out there who would happily take your money, but the EVP of Digital Marketing at Warner Brothers doesn’t have time to sort out the true talents from the sea of hucksters — she wants to go straight to the source, and feel confident that she is working with the foremost Twitter experts in the world: Twitter itself. Plus, only they have direct access to the database — a potential goldmine of brand perception and campaign performance information. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Twitter is the nearest thing to clairvoyance a marketer could have. The insights are raw, real-time, and nearly unmediated. That’s the stuff, and only Twitter’s got it. Now they need to start charging for it.

(Since I drafted this, Kevin Thau has announced that they are indeed pursuing this sort of approach. Excellent!)

2. Open up the vault: Provide access to historical data

Yes, Twitter is the closest thing we have to mind reading, and every single one of those thoughts is being saved, forever. Think about that for a second. As Twitter usage approaches ubiquity (still a long way off, but with 900% growth this year there’s no denying they’re moving in the right direction), their database starts to look like the most remarkable historical and anthropological asset even known to man. Imagine Twitter had existed on September 11, 2001. During the Cuban Missile Crisis. During the U.S. Civil War. Perhaps Historical Tweets was onto something? This is a resource that becomes more valuable each day that passes.

Currently, the search API only allows you to access records up to four months old, and by default prioritizes the newest records. Historical searches are impossible. One can imagine a model whereby Twitter charges for access to this historical archive, ala Lexis/Nexis. Libraries and Universities across the country would be paid subscribers, and this sort of service could demand a healthy premium.

3. Make the secondary market work for you: charge for premium API access

Twitter should not lose sight of the fact that it is not only a consumer-facing service, it is a very powerful open messaging layer and application platform. There is a whole secondary market emerging of clients and web apps built on top of Twitter and the Twitter API. Currently, a developer can request to be “whitelisted,” which raises the API request limit to 20,000 per hour. That’s pretty high — apparently all but the “largest consumers of [the] API” fit under that cap. But Twitter-based apps are still a nascent industry — as Twitter grows, the tide rises, and even the small apps will grow with it. Moreover, if this secondary market is really going to take off, entrepreneurs can’t be worried about their hit applications bumping into that ceiling. Hence, Twitter can keep the 20,000 cap for non-paying clients (remember one of the key philosophies here is to not take anything away that people are already getting — though it could be argued that the 20,000 cap, which was only instituted a couple of weeks ago, represents just such a revocation), and charge for added API requests, much how a CDN might charge per video stream. This way, instead of Twitter suffering as secondary apps achieve scale, and feeling the need to artifically limit them in order to cap that suffering, a mutually beneficial relationship is established: the more successful the secondary market is, the more successful Twitter becomes. Monetize the platform, not just the service.

The Twitter guys are all really smart. I’ve no doubt they’ve already thought of all of these things, and are either working on them, or have come up with good reasons why they shouldn’t. I’ve just been seeing so many really moronic Twitter business model posts (no, I won’t link to any; that would be ungentlemanly) that I felt the need to put in my 2c and hopefully raise the level of discourse. As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts.